Yankees risk getting ALDS Game 1 wrong with Gerrit Cole as Rodon case lingers vs. Rays

NEW YORK — The Yankees swept Boston so quickly that their rotation never came under real strain. Cam Schlittler and Max Fried handled the two-game wild-card round, New York outscored the Red Sox 18-2, and Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon both carried full rest into the American League Division Series.

That depth gave Aaron Boone a choice that looked more complicated than the order of the rotation suggested. Cole brought the stronger October record and had been lined up for a possible Wild Card Game 3. Rodon entered with the better September, the better season ERA and a dominant final tuneup against the opponent waiting in Tampa Bay.

The matchup added another layer. The Rays finished 98-64, went 55-26 at Tropicana Field and took seven of 13 games from the Yankees. Tampa Bay will start Drew Rasmussen, who finished 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 11 regular-season appearances against New York.

Cole and Rodon both arrive with legitimate claims. MLB’s final statistics list Cole at 10-9 with a 3.61 ERA, 131 strikeouts and a 1.10 WHIP in 22 starts after Tommy John surgery. Rodon went 7-3 with a 2.67 ERA, 91 strikeouts and a 1.06 WHIP in 16 starts after his own delayed season.

Their final head-to-head audition against Tampa Bay came on consecutive days. Rodon allowed three hits, walked none and struck out eight over eight scoreless innings in a 2-0 Yankees win on Sept. 22. Nick Martinez took the loss and David Bednar earned the save. Cole followed Sept. 23 by allowing two runs on three hits with three walks and eight strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings in a 9-2 win. The Yankees gave him a large cushion with four home runs.

The series structure narrows the choice. Cam Schlittler is lined up for Game 2 and, if necessary, Game 5, while Max Fried can return later in the series. That leaves Game 1 as the immediate decision between the two rested veterans, not simply a ranking of four starters.

Yankees make the call on Cole

The debate is now over. The Yankees named Gerrit Cole their Game 1 starter for Saturday night at Tropicana Field, putting the former Cy Young Award winner at the front of the ALDS rotation against the Rays, according to Greg Joyce.

The decision follows the expected order, but it also carries a matchup risk that made Rodon a serious alternative. Tampa Bay’s offense was materially more dangerous against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching this season.

FanGraphs’ season split data identify three above-average Rays hitters against lefties: Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz and Ryan Vilade. That group expands to seven against right-handers. MLB’s split tables show the same broad imbalance, with several Tampa Bay regulars performing better against righties.

Rodon’s Sept. 22 start was Tampa Bay’s only look at him this season, leaving him 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA against the Rays. Cole was also effective, going 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts, but his right-handed profile gives Tampa Bay more hitters operating in their stronger platoon environment.

An American League executive who scouted Cole’s final regular-season start said nothing unusual stood out in his stuff or command. Cole allowed only two runs against Tampa Bay on Sept. 23, evidence that his late home-run spike had not wrecked his overall form.

Rodon, however, closed faster. MLB’s postseason preview lists him at 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in four September starts. Cole went 3-2 with a 5.08 ERA in five September starts. That difference is difficult to separate from the opponent-specific platoon advantage.

That contrast does not make Cole a poor choice. It explains why the decision is not risk-free.

The handedness gap changes Tampa Bay’s lineup

The deeper split is where the decision changes. Tampa Bay’s lineup was materially more dangerous against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching this season, and that gives Rodon a matchup advantage that Cole cannot reproduce.

FanGraphs’ season split data identify only three above-average Rays hitters against lefties: Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz and Ryan Vilade. That group expands to seven against right-handers. MLB’s official split tables reinforce the shape of the imbalance. Caminero posted a .937 OPS against lefties, Díaz .835 and Vilade .841, while several regular Rays bats fell sharply below that level.

The most revealing part of the decision may be what Tampa Bay would have to do before the first pitch, had the Yankees opted for Rodon.

MLB’s projected Rays lineup against a right-hander includes left-handed or left-leaning threats such as Jonathan Aranda, Liam Hicks, Chandler Simpson, Victor Mesa Jr. and Richie Palacios around Díaz and Caminero. If Rodon starts, Tampa Bay is expected to make significant changes, with Vilade, Jonny DeLuca, Ben Williamson and Nick Fortes among the alternatives.

That matters because the Yankees would not merely be choosing the pitcher with the better September ERA. They would be forcing Tampa Bay to trade some of its preferred offensive configuration for a lineup built to survive a left-hander.

For a Game 1 at a stadium where the Rays won 55 games, changing the opponent’s roster calculus before the game starts has value. Rodon also just demonstrated that the matchup can work in practice, not only on a split sheet.

Tampa Bay Rays handedness splits (2026)

Cole’s October record explains Yankees’ bet

Cole’s strongest counterargument is his postseason record. He is 11-6 with a 2.77 ERA in 22 career postseason starts. Rodon is 1-3 with a 7.53 ERA in eight postseason appearances.

The Yankees therefore chose the pitcher with the longer October résumé even though the 2026 matchup data create a cleaner statistical case for Rodon. Cole also enters with extra rest after not being needed against Boston.

The decision now shifts the question from who should start to whether the Yankees’ choice can overcome Tampa Bay’s platoon advantage. Cole has already handled the Rays effectively three times this season. Saturday will test whether that history, plus his postseason track record, matters more than the left-handed matchup New York passed over.

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